Forecasting federal tax revenue and fees using econometric modeling

Abstract

Forecasting federal tax revenue and fees using econometric modeling

Grafova T.O., Kolesnikova K.V.

Incoming article date: 09.07.2020

The article considers the problem of economic forecasting of the volume of federal taxes and fees by the example of the Southern Federal District. To make a forecast, an econometric model was constructed with the introduction of dummy variables.The main objective of the study is the implementation of a short-term forecast using an econometric model. According to data from 01/01/2018 to 03/31/2020. an economic forecast of federal tax revenues was made and for the next two months.In conclusion, the proposed forecasting technique has such advantages as efficiency and simplicity.

Keywords: taxes, fees, forecasting, federal budget revenues, budget system, multiplicative model, dummy variables